Amid export risks and new trade routes, the temporary suspension of US timber tariffs offers Italy a window of opportunity to boost the competitiveness of its wood-furniture supply chain.
US Timber Tariffs: A Window of Opportunity for Italy
The 90-day suspension of US tariffs on timber opens a highly relevant scenario for the Italian wood-furniture supply chain. As the Milan Design Week takes place, the sector faces a crucial moment: if tariffs are confirmed after the moratorium, Italian furniture exports could drop by 5% to 8% in 2025, with negative effects also on the ongoing reconstruction of the national supply chain. It is therefore essential to take a long-term view, diversifying export markets and—paradoxically—strengthening trade relations with the United States in light of tensions with China.
Market Analysis: What’s Happening in the Global Timber Industry
According to our analysis, the global timber market is currently experiencing strong uncertainty, both in Europe and North America. The main destabilizing factors include:
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the protectionist approach of the Trump administration,
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possible countermeasures by affected countries,
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changing international trade flows,
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the entry into force of the EUDR regulation,
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a 25% increase in average raw timber prices in the EU over the past 18 months.
Compounding the situation is the fact that few industry players are yet fully compliant with the EU’s new deforestation-free product regulation.
Tariffs on Chinese Timber: A Chance for Italian Exporters
China plays a key role in this context. As the second-largest global exporter of furniture to the US (worth $6.6 billion), it may face 125% tariffs. This would open up space for new players, including Italy—the top European exporter—which exported $1.3 billion worth of goods to the US in 2024, out of a total $3.1 billion from the entire EU. Italy could step in with high-quality materials and craftsmanship, capitalizing on its strong positioning in the premium segment. China’s recent difficulties meeting high technical and environmental standards in markets like Japan and Australia further strengthen this potential shift.
Impact of a Tariff Reinstatement on Canadian Timber
Should US tariffs on Canadian timber be reinstated—reaching up to 39% on conifers used in construction—the price of wooden homes in the US could rise by approximately $10,000. In Europe, however, the entry of lower-priced Canadian timber would drive down raw and semi-finished timber prices, undermining the competitiveness of local forest resources. This would jeopardize strategic initiatives such as the Italy Forest-Wood Cluster and the recent Made in Italy decree, which allocated €25 million to support the domestic supply chain.
Timber Tariffs and New Export Routes: Where to Go Next
The current uncertainty also creates real opportunities for diversification. Arab countries, South America, China, India, and South Africa represent key new export destinations. While countries like Germany, Austria, and Scandinavia may focus on exporting sawn timber, Italy could export finished furniture. In the United Arab Emirates alone, the sector grew by 21.2% in 2024 compared to 2023; in Saudi Arabia, by 16.9%. In January, a memorandum was signed with Saudi Arabia, opening new scenarios for high-end Italian products in a market with strong potential.
Italian Manufacturing and Know-How: Our Competitive Advantage
Even with high tariffs, it is unlikely that the US manufacturing industry could swiftly meet domestic demand. The wood-furniture sector requires specialized technology and expertise, and the high cost of US labor makes reshoring or local production by foreign operators—like IKEA—challenging.
Italy retains a key strategic advantage: direct control over raw materials and high-quality semi-finished products, such as particle boards made from post-consumer wood and refined with advanced techniques. This industrial model is currently out of reach for the US and offers Italy a strong competitive edge in the short to medium term.